After September 30, 2026, EB-5 will cost more: why this will happen and what it means for investors

In recent months, most EB-5 market participants have been almost entirely focused on the September 30, 2026 deadline—and for good reason. Submitting petitions before that date helps preserve eligibility under the current rules, even if Congress later does not extend the Regional Center program. In other words, EB-5 petitions based on the Regional Center, filed on 09/30/2026 or earlier will be adjudicated under the existing law if the program’s authorization is interrupted at any point.

This approach has driven up demand and created a sense of urgency: many view the deadline as a “safety mechanism” amid uncertainty in Congress. At the same time, investors have become more deliberate about timing—considering visa availability and expected processing timelines—especially as adjudication practices continue to evolve.

However, there is another date EB-5 investors cannot afford to overlook: January 1, 2027.

While the market debates how meaningful the grandfathering effect will truly be, an important statutory (i.e., law-mandated) change is approaching by late 2026. It has the potential to substantially increase the cost of participating in EB-5—whether investing through a Regional Center or through other program formats.

January 1, 2027 is when U.S. law requires an automatic increase to the minimum EB-5 investment amounts based on inflation. This is not a political choice and not an “optional” adjustment—this mechanism is embedded in the statute and must be applied.

The law is unambiguous: minimum investments will rise

The requirement is set out in the EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act of 2022 (RIA), specifically in 8 U.S.C. § 1153(b)(5)(C)(iii). The statute leaves little room for interpretation:

“Beginning on January 1, 2027 […] the amount […] shall be automatically adjusted […] based on the aggregate annual percentage change […] in the CPI-U for all urban consumers.”

The law also clarifies the calculation method: first, the non-TEA amount (currently $1,050,000) is recalculated. Then the TEA amount is set at 75% of the recalculated figure. Finally, both amounts are rounded down to the nearest $50,000.

The key word is “shall” (“must”). That is a mandatory obligation, not an “opportunity.” The adjustment is built into the legal framework.

What the new EB-5 investment amounts may be

The adjustment is tied to CPI-U—the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers—published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). CPI-U reflects inflation: how prices change over time.

Under the law, the calculation uses the cumulative inflation from January 1, 2022 to the date of the adjustment. For the first recalculation, that date will be January 1, 2027.

This means part of the future increase is already effectively “locked in” by historical data. During and after the COVID period, prices rose significantly—even before accounting for additional pressure in subsequent months, including the effect of higher oil prices amid geopolitical factors.

So even without forecasting future inflation, two conclusions are reasonable: (1) inflation since 2022 has been substantial; and (2) the accumulated historical data will likely drive a meaningful increase in EB-5 thresholds.

Exact figures will depend on CPI-U data for 2026, but market analysts have already tried to model a possible “range.” For example, Ismael Fernandez (President of Greengate Consulting) notes that cumulative CPI-U inflation of roughly 16.6% over the past four years could result in the next adjustment of approximately $1.2 million for standard projects and around $900,000 for TEA projects. He also emphasizes this could be a lower bound, with further increases depending on inflation during the remainder of the period.

Adam Greene (Peachtree Group) follows a similar logic: his assessment suggests the TEA threshold could rise to $937,500.

Important: these are forecasts, not guaranteed outcomes. The final amounts will be calculated using the actual CPI-U figures available at the time of the adjustment. But the key point is different: the minimum investment will genuinely increase, and investors will feel the change in practice.

Why this matters more than it seems

As the required investment amount increases, EB-5 becomes less “affordable” for a portion of potential investors. Discussions about EB-5 often assume that petitioners are primarily ultra-wealthy individuals who can easily absorb higher thresholds. In reality, that’s not always the case.

Many investors build their capital through personal savings, family supportborrowed funds to reach the required minimum. For those participants, the difference between, for instance, $800,000 and $900,000+ can be decisive.

Raising the threshold means greater financial pressure in real-world conditions:

1) When financing—loan sizes typically increase, debt obligations (including interest) grow, and repayment terms may become more challenging, raising overall risk.

2) When saving—some investors will need more time to accumulate the required amount through salary or business income.

Even “small” changes can have a noticeable effect. For example, if someone earns $100,000 per year and saves 20% annually, it may take about five additional years to accumulate an extra $100,000. In other situations, investors may need to request larger transfers from family members, which can be a difficult step.

But the impact is not limited to personal finances. Rising demand inevitably shows up in the project market too. Another factor that’s often underestimated is the availability of suitable EB-5 projects.

As two events approach at the same time—the grandfathering deadline and the threshold adjustment on January 1, 2027—more investors will try to invest and file under the current levels. That will put pressure on the supply of high-quality, structurally sound projects.

Not every project will be ready to absorb such a surge. Typically, TEA projects that have already obtained the appropriate status and filed an I-956F may become more competitive and fill faster.

At the same time, developers may slow the launch of new offerings due to uncertainty about timing, pricing, and future investment levels. As a result, the market may “tighten”: fewer options available at current amounts, and higher competition among the remaining choices.

Finally, broader uncertainty about the future of the EB-5 Regional Center overlays all of this. The January 1, 2027 adjustment is not a standalone event—it’s part of a bigger picture where program renewal and future rules remain unresolved.

If and when the program is reauthorized, it’s unclear what changes legislation may introduce—whether source-of-funds rules become stricter, and how adjudication practices might shift.

So investors face dual pressure: threshold amounts are rising, and requirements to document investments may also become more demanding.

Implications for investors

Higher costs affect all EB-5 investors, but not evenly. The toughest situation is often for applicants from India and China, where visa backlogs can stretch for decades.

For many of them, EB-5 remains one of the most realistic paths to obtain lawful permanent resident status within a reasonable timeframe. However, increasing investment thresholds add yet another variable to an already complex waiting equation.

Bottom line: what to expect on the timeline

Today, EB-5 conversations often focus on a single key deadline. But within the next few months, EB-5 will become more expensive—and possibly more stringent in terms of requirements. Exact numbers are not yet known, but the direction of change is clear.

If you’re exploring investment-based residency/citizenship pathways, then any change in investment thresholds becomes a decisive planning factor. The article explains why January 1, 2027 may bring an automatic increase in EB-5 minimum investment amounts due to inflation adjustments—and how this can affect your budget and timing. To evaluate your options and prepare ahead, talk your strategy through with the team at Digital Nomad—we’ll guide you through investment program requirements and practical next steps before potential cost increases.

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