Share of New York “millionaires” shrinking: estimates point to up to $12B in annual tax losses

The share of New York households earning more than $1 million is falling sharply—from 12.7% in 2010 to 8.7% by 2022. The Citizens Budget Commission (CBC), an independent policy think tank, reports that this marks the steepest relative decline among all U.S. states in its Competitive NYS: Value Proposition Tracker.

If New York had simply held the 2010 “millionaire household” share, the CBC estimates that personal income tax collections in 2022 alone could have been about $10.7 billion higher.

The National Taxpayers Union Foundation (NTUF), a Washington-based group that advocates for lower taxes, reaches a similar conclusion. In a May report, it estimates annual losses at $12.2 billion, using a 2013 baseline and accounting for both state and local taxes.

While the assumptions and starting points differ, the direction is the same: no other state appears to be losing ground faster than New York in terms of concentrating high-income households.

A bigger pie, but a smaller slice

In absolute terms, New York is still adding wealthy households. The number of households with adjusted gross income above $1 million rose from 41,520 in 2013 to 69,780 in 2022. However, the NTUF estimates that if the 2013 share had persisted, the figure could have reached 95,812.

The catch is that other states are attracting “millionaires” much faster. From 2010 to 2022, the number of millionaires in New York doubled, while California tripled, Texas also tripled, and Florida increased by four times. As a result, New York—once the second most concentrated state for millionaires—has slipped to 4th place.

NTUF also highlights how tax “exposure” is concentrated. It estimates that one New York millionaire contributes as much in state and local taxes as roughly 39 average residents. Meanwhile, according to the Tax Foundation, the top 1% of taxpayers generate about 45% of state income tax revenue.

Per capita, combined state and local taxes total $12,495—78% above the national average and the highest level in the U.S.

“The data can’t point to one single cause”

Monа Shah, managing partner at Mona Shah & Associates Global, cautions against treating the trend as a one-factor story. “What the data can’t do is identify a single cause,” she says. At the same time, she argues that taxes “clearly belong in the picture.”

The tax gap is indeed substantial. New Yorkers face the highest combined income tax rate in the country for the top bracket—14.8%. By comparison, the second-highest state is California at 13.3%. And Florida and Texas do not levy a wage/income tax on residents.

However, other forces were also at play over the same period. Shah notes that a 2017 cap on SALT deductions (state and local taxes) “dramatically raised the effective cost of New York taxes for high earners.” She also points to post-2020 normalization of remote work, rising housing costs, and broader quality-of-life considerations.

Her bottom line is two-sided: “If you attribute the shift only to tax rates, you’d be overstating what the evidence supports. But if you ignore taxes entirely, you miss where people were moving—and why.”

The Cuomo era story: “needs clarification”

A popular narrative is that under former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, rates barely changed. Shah, however, says that view is incomplete. “Cuomo largely kept rates stable for much of his term, but in April 2021 he signed a budget that raised the top state tax rate on high incomes.” The result: New York’s combined top rate (including New York City) reached the current leading level nationwide.

The early-pandemic acceleration in outmigration occurred around the same time. Still, Shah stresses that separating the “tax effect” from COVID-driven relocation is difficult. “It’s really hard to disentangle the tax impact from COVID-related moves,” she says. Still, timing matters: the drop in the millionaire share started well before 2021, implying the trend existed earlier.

Mamdamani’s plan, a 2% rate proposal, and Albany’s veto power

New York City Mayor Zachary (Zach) Mamdamani, who took office on January 1, proposed during the campaign adding 2 percentage points to the city’s top income tax rate on earnings above $1 million—from 3.9% to 5.9%. The plan would have brought combined marginal rates closer to 16.8%.

Would it speed up departures? Shah calls it “more of a forecast than a fact.” But she points to two political constraints.

First, changes to the city income tax require coordination at the Albany level. Gov. Kathy Hochul, facing an election in November, opposed raising taxes and publicly urged “patriotic millionaires” to return from Florida.

Second, political limits have already surfaced. In February, Mamdamani discussed a 9.5% increase in property taxes as a fallback option to close the city’s $5.4 billion budget gap, but later backed away in May after the City Council did not support the idea.

Ultimately, the gap was covered by roughly $4 billion through state assistance, agency operational savings, and a pied-à-terre tax on second homes worth more than $5 million—approved by Hochul. The measure is expected to raise about $500 million per year.

Tax Foundation analysts stress that the market signal may matter as much as the formal policy changes. The sense that New York is “not done raising taxes” could influence how affluent households decide where to live.

Rethink or “existential” risk?

In response, Mamdamani argues that the tax base can handle it. Commenting on the CBC study, he rejected the idea of outmigration, calling New York “the richest city in the richest country in the history of the world,” and noting that the state continued attracting millionaires even after earlier increases.

There is some empirical support for parts of his stance. In a December study, Cornell sociology professor Christobal Young, who has spent years examining whether high-income people relocate in response to rising taxes, concluded that top earners move far less often than many assume.

Still, the news cycle offers another signal: Bloomberg reports that luxury real-estate contracts in Manhattan jumped 25% month over month in the first weeks after Mamdamani’s election.

Shah believes both sides are partially right—so the debate continues. With an economy estimated at about $2.5 trillion, New York remains the nation’s third-largest after California and Texas. The city’s population also resumed growth in 2023–2024.

But, she adds, that growth has been driven mainly by international immigration, not by a return of high-income taxpayers. That means the burden is landing on a shrinking base of top-earning households.

For the investment-migration market, this could kick off a longer chain reaction. Families choosing Miami over Manhattan may increasingly become drivers of record demand for golden visas and second citizenship. Shah flagged this trend for IMI back in 2024: even former EB-5 investors began looking beyond the United States.

Expert note (often overlooked): “New York millionaires” are not a single, uniform group. In practice, many high earners maintain residency through a patchwork of strategies—trust structuring, timing of capital gains, and multi-state business footprints—so their measured “share” can change even when their real economic presence remains. That’s why some researchers argue that tax policy may influence where income is booked and how residency is reported as much as it influences actual relocation. The result is that headline migration data can understate how strongly the wealthy adjust their financial behavior in response to state and local tax rules.

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