Spain: more than 1.17 million applications to regularise migrants—and a dispute over “3 million” via family reunification

Spain has wrapped up the largest regularisation programme in decades for migrants living in the country without authorisation, ending on 30 June. According to the authorities, 1,174,978 applications were submitted—more than double the government’s initial estimate (around 500,000). By mid-June, the ministry had recorded nearly 900,000 requests, and on 2 July the Secretary of State for Migration Pilar Cañete confirmed the final figure.

However, a few days later, a police union entered the public debate. Media outlets reported an estimate that the final number of people affected could rise to three million—including possible family reunification by migrants who have already been legalised.

Why “3 million” is appearing in the discussion

The 3 million figure is not official statistics. Its source is the calculations of the Sindicato Profesional de Policía, as well as arguments made by commanders within Extranjería (the units handling matters related to foreign nationals). The logic is straightforward: it assumes that each migrant who obtains legal status will later be able to bring at least three relatives to Spain through the family reunification procedure.

At the same time, the publications stress that this is an internal estimate, not data released by government bodies.

A three-million forecast is not a measurement

It is important to understand that the “3 million” estimate is a multiplier, not the result of an actual count. Spanish law does not provide for automatic family reunification “by request” after regularisation.

To reunite a spouse or children, the applicant must prove stable income and sufficient housing. The financial threshold is linked to the IPREM indicator (Indicador Público de Renta de Efectos Múltiples): for a two-person household, the required level is 150% of IPREM, and then an additional 50% for each extra family member. For part of those who have just submitted documents, meeting this requirement may be difficult.

Who is applying: demographics and countries of origin

Among the submitted applications, two thirds come from people from Latin America. The largest nationality group is Colombians, accounting for nearly 26% of all applicants. The application data also shows a clear age profile: 81% of applicants are under 45, and 57% of applications were filed by men. At the same time, six out of ten applicants are under 34.

Many work in low-paid sectors—services and the hospitality industry, agriculture, construction, and care work. In those areas, the financial requirements for subsequent reunification may become an additional barrier.

An application is not a decision: how many have already been approved

Submitting an application does not automatically mean being granted status. As of 2 July, out of nearly 1.2 million documents filed, the authorities admitted 609,737 applications for further processing and issued temporary authorisation pending the final checks. At the same time, a final “yes” was granted to only about 11,000 applicants.

Between the government’s initial estimate (around 500,000) and the actual number of applications filed (1.2 million), there remains a grey area where refusals, withdrawals, and cases involving incomplete documentation will occur.

Migration backdrop: the “pull factor” argument is under question

Alongside the launch of the programme, it has been reported that the number of irregular arrivals to Spain has fallen significantly. Figures suggest that in 2025 the indicator dropped by roughly 42%, and at the start of 2026 it continued to decline.

In addition, regularisation is aimed at an already established population—people who have been living in the country for a long time—rather than at a “fresh influx” of new irregular migrants. This distinction weakens the arguments of those warning about efecto llamada, the alleged “pull factor” for new irregular arrivals.

Court rulings: the process has not been halted

Spanish courts have allowed the programme to continue. On 8 July, the Supreme Court refused to suspend the royal decree and did not refer the matter to the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU). The regional governments of Valencia and Aragon were among those whose request was rejected.

Earlier, on 30 June, some judges had proposed a cuestión prejudicial—a preliminary reference to Luxembourg. But after the court declined to freeze the decree, the question was deemed premature, leaving open the possibility of revisiting it later.

On the same day, a second decision was issued that partially adjusted the immigration rules. The court struck down provisions under which residency for relatives of Spanish citizens with criminal records was automatically denied. Now it requires a case-by-case assessment—whether there is a real and current threat.

Administrative workload and the police “action plan”

Even if the final number of applications is clarified, the strain on the system remains significant. In early July, the public service union CSIF warned that around 500,000 cases had not yet been uploaded to the Mercurio platform, used for immigration documentation. Inside the institutions, concerns were raised about a potential “breakdown” of operations.

To ease the queues, the National Police launched a plan de choque: officers are being offered voluntary additional shifts at €25 per hour.

Police criticism: document checks and the risk of fraud

Police leadership has voiced additional concerns. They argue that the government has reduced the National Police’s role in verifying documents and criminal records, shifting these responsibilities to staff at the migration ministry—whose training, critics say, is insufficient.

As a result, police claim, the risk of fraudulent applications claiming family ties may increase. Immigration officials respond sharply: “el sistema va a quebrar” — “the system will break.”

The state’s financial logic: regularisation as a “system repair”

The Spanish government frames the programme not as an act of goodwill, but as a measure to improve financial sustainability. According to data as of the end of 2025, foreign workers represented 14.1% of contributors to the social security system—more than 3.1 million people.

Including the relevant ministry, the argument is that bringing more people into legal status increases inflows and reduces the scale of shadow employment. Critics counter that with low wages, contributions may remain limited, and some dependants who do not work in Spain may rely on healthcare and education without generating comparable contributions.

What determines whether “3 million” becomes real

Whether the stated figure can be reached at scale depends on several factors that the “3 million” calculation does not take into account in advance:

• How many applicants are truly approved.
• Whether they can meet the financial threshold for family reunification.
• How long the transition takes from an annual authorisation to a more stable status required for subsequent reunification.

The new status is typically granted for one year and then renewed. Rights to family reunification are tied to a more settled position. For most applicants from Latin America, this path may be shorter: citizenship for citizens of Ibero-American countries may be possible in as little as two years, rather than ten.

Conclusion: the programme’s scale is confirmed, but the “3 million” estimate is still a calculation

There is no doubt about the scale of Spain’s regularisation: more than 1.17 million applications have been filed. But the “three million” number remains, precisely, an estimate based on a single key assumption—how many relatives families could realistically bring through reunification.

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