Nevis PM: the Caribbean CBI is doomed — the EU is “set to close” the programmes and won’t offer alternatives

Caribbean governments have spent years revising the rules of citizenship by investment (CBI), assuming that meeting the conditions would keep the programmes alive. But Nevis Prime Minister Mark Brantley says that reasoning was flawed from the start. He made the point during his monthly press conference on 23 July.

“We used to be able to go to international bodies and to big states and take a moral position — a position based on justice. Now everybody’s focused only on their own interest,” Brantley said.

In his view, reform did not become the “currency” they hoped for. “We, I think, misread the situation. We thought: if we reform, continue reforming and give them what they want, the programme would survive,” the prime minister said.

The problem, he explained, was less about any specific mechanism and more about the EU’s stance: “If, philosophically, they believe these programmes are bad, then it hardly matters what reforms we make. The position has already been set.”

As an example, Brantley pointed to Malta: “The EU took it to court to close the programme in Malta, and they succeeded. If they did that with their own ‘home’ country, what were they going to do with St Kitts and Nevis, Antigua and Barbuda, Grenada?”

His argument is grounded in a chain of decisions. The European Commission launched an infringement procedure, and on 29 April 2025 the European Court of Justice, ruling in Case C-181/23, found that Malta’s investor naturalisation mechanism was incompatible with EU law: citizenship is, in practice, treated like a “deal”. In July 2025, Malta shut down that route and replaced it with a more discretionary, merit-based scheme.

A second precedent is Vanuatu. In November 2024, the country finally lost Schengen visa-free benefits (the first time the EU removed a third country from the visa-waiver list). Then, in October 2025, the European Parliament approved an expanded mechanism that allows CBI programmes to be paused not only as part of broader measures, but as a standalone basis.

Brantley’s conclusion is blunt: “Now the attempt to come and say: ‘Ladies and gentlemen, we’ve done everything you asked — don’t close us’ won’t work. They are hell-bent on closing these programmes — no options.”

Planning for 2028 starts now

On 25 June, the European Commission sent letters to all five Eastern Caribbean states running CBI programmes. The documents asked them to wind down the programmes by 1 June 2028, while proposing a 24-month transition period. Brantley treats the deadline not as the start of negotiations, but as a countdown.

“I think they’ve given us a window of two years. Now we need to think: what happens after those two years, after June 2028. And start planning now. Geothermal energy — geothermal energy — geothermal energy,” the prime minister said.

Next on his list are agriculture, infrastructure and private capital. He also singled out the Nevis airport project, construction of which has already begun, along with “other major investments”, including the Destiny Project and a range of initiatives he expects will create jobs, boost economic activity and support GDP growth.

At the same time, reforms are not stopping. St Kitts and Nevis continues to reshape the “genuine link” model — moving away from passive contributions toward physical presence and participation in the economy. Antigua and Barbuda, this month, introduced a bill raising the residency requirement after citizenship from five days to 30, and placing the programme unit under independent audit.

Meanwhile, St Vincent and the Grenadines still plans to launch its own programme this year. Three governments are strengthening or building mechanisms, but Brantley believes the attempt is doomed.

The project he was counting on is stuck

Destiny landed in the diversification list on the same day Brantley confirmed that the project was not approved. Prime Minister Terrance Drew sent him a letter, and Brantley said that after review by the Cabinet at the federal level and the Nevis administration, there were four key questions. Government representatives and developers spent a large part of 22 July at the Four Seasons hotel trying to resolve them.

Within the federation, the project is assessed under the Special Sustainability Zone (SSZ) framework, where Destiny is the first application. The investment migration component, according to participants, has the most significant fiscal implications. Both levels of government relied on forecasts of 7,000–10,000 property buyers, planning to route activity through CBI. It is on that logic — at least in part — that the SSZ legislative framework was built.

That is why the post-CBI framework is so difficult: developer Olivier Janssens is funding construction and the first two years of operation of the dialysis centre, at a cost of US$1.3 million at Alexandra Hospital, as well as promised payments: $100 per month to each Nevis resident — after the development agreement is approved by the federal Cabinet. In other words, one possible way to break CBI dependency is a project whose economics are originally designed around CBI, with the decision ultimately dependent on federal authority.

“No one is coming to save us”

Brantley laid out the fiscal case in more detail in a 7 July published article, “The Death of Citizenship by Investment in the OECS”, drawing on remarks made in Grenada on 22 March. Based on his calculations, CBI in recent years accounted for 30–35% of Grenada’s annual government revenue, 15–25% for St Lucia, 40–60% for Dominica, and up to 60–70% for St Kitts and Nevis.

The figures vary, but the direction, in his view, is undeniable. His main argument is not only budgetary but constitutional: “If national revenue and development are ‘outsourced’ to politicians in distant countries, then claims of political independence become an illusion.”

He also explains why Brussels is unlikely to soften. In Brantley’s account, EU countries are already trying to build more money into budgets for preparing for war “in the name of preserving peace”, and the bloc — like the United States — is becoming more inward-looking: “less abroad, more at home”. Brussels, he expects, will demand that CBI programmes be closed without offering alternatives.

He put it more sharply as well: “We’ve been postponing the decision, hoping the outside world would understand us. But the outside world is convinced it doesn’t care about these small countries.”

Under his logic, that means a change in position — not just a policy tweak: “There’s nobody coming to save us. The Caribbean has to save itself. The region needs to engage with the world not the way we would like, but the way it is.”

Accept the deadline — or “sell” alongside it

Apex Capital Partners founder and CEO Nouri Katz argues that leaders should not fight the deadline, but accept it. “Caribbean leaders should accept the timeline set by the European Union and spend that time on two things,” he said.

First: diversification. Second: negotiations — ones that, so far, nobody has put on the table. “We need to begin negotiations with the EU on a support package — on what countries get in return for taking such a necessary revenue stream away. There must be an exchange.”

A similar argument was made earlier by Gaston Browne, and Brantley backed it in his own article. Katz’s difference is in the sequence: agree first, then seek support.

On diversification, Katz points to actions by Brantley himself: “He, so to speak, put money where his mouth is.” Katz highlights geothermal initiatives and the Nevis Online Gaming Authority, which licenses online casinos under an ordinance that came into force in May 2025.

For other countries in the region, Katz says they need to look for innovative ways to attract capital and “look beyond citizenship by investment”. He is certain that diversification is inevitable.

Wealthy Expat CEO Raphael Sintron proposes a different approach: “The strategy should not be to argue with the EU — it’s unreliable in the long term anyway. Focus on new markets and expand the programme.” In his view, Brussels should not be the subject of discussion; it is more important to sell to places where demand for Schengen access has never been a condition.

Still, all three positions share one thing: none of them expects the EU to be “convinced” to scrap the phase-out. Brantley is planning for life after CBI, Katz suggests trading acceptance of the deadline for support, and Sintron recommends continuing work in markets that historically have not required Schengen access.

Prime Minister Drew is pursuing a separate line. On 10 July, he joined the other four heads of government in Roseau, where they issued a joint statement to send a high-level mission to Brussels. The language in the document — the toughest possible — focuses on transition conditions rather than on refusing the requirements. Brantley, who is also leader of the opposition in the federal National Assembly, stresses that the mission will not change the outcome.

The next key checkpoint is September, when the interim verification measures described in the letters dated 25 June are expected to come into effect.

If you’re considering investment citizenship and “golden visas/CBI”, it’s crucial to track how the EU stance and court practice evolve—because it directly affects the stability of such programs. At Digital Nomad we compile up-to-date guidance on key updates and risks across jurisdictions, helping you choose more confidently. Start here: https://digital-nomad.gr/en/goldenvisa

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