A Six-Week War and Why It Forced Gulf Investors to Rethink a “Plan B”

For years, the biggest question for many investors in the Gulf wasn’t geopolitics—it was choosing the right school for the kids for next September. Then, in just a few days, reality shifted: Brent crude crossed $144 per barrel, rocket attacks were reported across the region from six countries, and the Strait of Hormuz was, for the first time in history, shut to commercial shipping. All of it—within less than 72 hours.

About ten weeks have passed, but the situation hasn’t simply “settled.” Ceasefire arrangements remain fragile, and both sides offer contradictory accounts of what was agreed. The strait is still operating under restrictions, oil prices haven’t returned to pre-conflict levels, and CBI (citizenship by investment) requests from residents in the region have surged by more than 375%—depending on the data source.

Against this backdrop of constant events and uncertainty, a straightforward but difficult question emerges: what happens when security, mobility, and financial access depend on the same geography—and that geography stops cooperating?

When theory becomes personal

Many people understood that risk existed—only it was usually filed under “unlikely.”

Global instability has been rising for more than a decade, as tracked by the Global Peace Index. In practice, COVID restrictions “closed” much of the world to travel, then came a sequence of shocks that were quickly followed by a return to familiar routines.

For example, the 12-day war in 2025 led to the closure of airspace over parts of the Gulf and triggered a steep rise in shipping insurance premiums. Life bounced back quickly enough that contingency plans still sat in the “someday” folder.

But February 28 was a turning point: the effects didn’t disappear at the same speed. The International Energy Agency called the Hormuz disruption the largest supply shock in the history of the global oil market. Oxford Economics revised its GCC growth forecast for 2026 down to -0.2%.

By mid-March, the region’s 70% food import flow had been disrupted. Retailers were forced to organize “by-air” supply chains into countries where 87% of the population are foreign citizens who chose to live there.

That last statistic matters most. The Gulf’s economic model depends, to a large extent, on the confidence that people can leave when needed. When that confidence cracks, effects begin to reinforce each other: capital moves out, talent follows, and the very energy that made these economies stand out starts working in reverse.

Yet it’s not panic-driven callers. The share of people considering a permanent move is still low—under 10%. More common are calm, deliberate decisions. Increasingly, people acknowledge that dependence on a single jurisdiction “for everything” (security, schools, banking, movement) is a structural weakness. The war didn’t create it—it simply made it obvious.

A shift that was already building

Headlines often frame rising demand as a reaction to conflict. The reality is more complex: the trend has been forming for years.

Even before the first rocket strikes, the profile of investors coming to RCBI/CBI advisory firms was changing. The familiar type remains: a well-off person from a passport-constrained country seeking basic freedom of movement.

But new groups have appeared alongside them:

• European professionals hedging against political instability at home;
• Americans concerned about tax policy, healthcare, or the broader political climate;
• Entrepreneurs from Gulf countries who love where they live—but understand the difference between liking a country and being dependent on it.

What unites them isn’t citizenship or the size of capital. What unites them is the approach. They instinctively understand diversification because they already apply it to investments, business, and real estate. The one asset that long remained undiversified was their own legal identity.

The Iran-linked turmoil didn’t “create” the problem. It simply highlighted—loudly and simultaneously—what many had been thinking about in the background for years.

Planning ahead is better than improvising after

Here, an analogy helps—though it’s not about finance.

Imagine a calm day in a shopping mall: you can choose any exit, move at your own pace, check the layout, and if you want, take the stairs. No one blocks your routes.

Now turn on the fire alarm. Every exit becomes “contested” instantly, the crowd starts moving like a single organism, and options that were available a minute ago disappear.

Investment migration works similarly. In stable conditions, programs are open, processes are clear, pricing stays consistent, and investors can evaluate options at their own speed. After a crisis, everything tightens: entry thresholds rise, due diligence queues lengthen, and some programs freeze expansion or close entirely.

For instance, Spain closed its real-estate “golden visa” in 2025—without a “grandfather clause” for those who were only considering the decision.

People who acted earlier—those who obtained a second citizenship or residency during calm periods—didn’t have to guess what would happen once the airspace above “home” closed. They had real options: passports in real drawers.

Meanwhile, those who waited are now competing with a market that suddenly filled up with people who reached the same conclusion at the same time.

The industry is maturing

If demand for investment migration has already matured, then “supply” is catching up.

Two market changes matter even beyond the current crisis.

First—accessibility. For decades, CBI often required a minimum of $100,000 or more—frequently much higher. That filtered out a broad layer of mobile professionals and middle-class families who need optionality but didn’t have enough capital to enter.

This threshold started to drop in 2025, when São Tomé and Príncipe launched its CBI program: entry for individual applicants from $90,000, and for families of up to four people from $95,000.

The program was designed with speed and inclusivity in mind. Passport Legacy built the structure together with the São Tomé and Príncipe government over roughly 18 months. The goal was to enable processing within timelines as short as four weeks, keep the program accessible to applicants of different nationalities (excluding North Korea), and ensure real impact through a National Transformation Fund focused on renewable energy and infrastructure.

Important: this isn’t a one-off case. It’s a shift in philosophy—the idea that citizenship by investment shouldn’t be a “closed club” reserved only for the ultra-wealthy, but a practical tool for families who plan ahead and are ready to act.

In its first nine months, the program received over 230 applications from more than 27 countries, and the first passports were issued in January 2026.

Second—stronger due diligence. And that should reassure those who doubted the industry’s maturity. Checks are getting stricter—and that’s a positive.

Governments worldwide are raising the bar for background screening, AML requirements, and financial transparency. In the EU, pressure is increasing on Caribbean programs to tighten verification procedures. Regional agreements are emerging around minimum investment thresholds. The era of “fast approvals without deep checks” is gradually fading.

Build a “portfolio” of options—not a single ticket

Today, conversations with advisors are less about “one passport.” They’re about combinations.

In practice, this is often called “stacked options,” where multiple residences and/or citizenships are considered at the same time—each solving a different family need. For example, a Caribbean passport can provide quick access to mobility, visa-free travel to 140+ countries, and processing in weeks. Add a European “golden visa,” and you expand Schengen-area residency opportunities, access to healthcare and education systems, and potentially a pathway to EU citizenship.

If you then layer in a Southeast Asia residence permission, you can create a business hub—or a jurisdiction for banking/financial operations aligned to a different geopolitical axis.

The goal isn’t to collect documents. The goal is to eliminate a single point of failure.

Combinations are tailored to the specific variables of each family: where business interests are located, where children will study, which tax model creates less friction, and whether access is needed immediately or planned over 5 years.

No competent advisor would recommend putting all your money into a single stock. The logic is the same for legal residence, work, travel, and access to your own assets. Concentration risk in citizenship is as real as concentration risk in securities—just that you can’t “sell” a passport in 48 hours.

As Passport Legacy CEO Daniel Duric notes: a second passport is a starting point, not the finish line. Families protect themselves reliably by building a portfolio of options—mobility, tax efficiency, access to education, and physical safety across different regions. That’s real diversification.

Why planning is the key

The ceasefire may hold. The strait may reopen. The Gulf region knows how to “return to normal”—it has weathered shocks before, and the fundamental economic parameters don’t change forever.

But one assumption underpinning the entire strategy has changed: the belief that stability is guaranteed—that the place where you raised your children and built your business will always keep working under the conditions you calculated in advance. The February hit won’t vanish without a trace.

Investors who act now—while programs are open, processing queues remain manageable, and conditions are clear—will be able to worry less during the next crisis. And history from the past decades shows: the next crisis will come.

The difference between readiness and sudden vulnerability isn’t luck. It’s planning. And the best time for legacy planning was yesterday. The second-best time is today.

Passport Legacy is an investment advisory firm in capital migration, owned and operated by a Swiss company. Founded in 2018, led by Geoffrey Henzeler (IMI Person of the Year 2025). The company operates through ten offices worldwide, with a team of 60+ specialists. Passport Legacy holds state authorizations for more than 22 citizenship and residency-by-investment programs. Passport Legacy designed and manages the São Tomé and Príncipe CBI program under a decade-long exclusive agreement with the government, and supports a 99.9% client approval rate across its portfolio.

When geopolitics changes the rules within weeks, investors from the Gulf need a reliable backup route for safety, mobility, and financial stability. That’s why many start looking at Golden Visas and investment residence programs as a more controllable “Plan B”: you build a legal foundation for movement and access to European life without relying on a single risk corridor. Want help choosing the right pathway for your goals and timeline? Contact Digital Nomad.

Our Telegram channel about various types of Greek residence permits, digital nomad programs, and the Greek Golden Visa: @digitalnomadgr